Climate Change- what does it mean for rural business?

The climate change debate is like a boxing match. In the red corner are the climate change ‘enforcers’ and in the blue corner the climate change ‘deniers’. Both ‘boxers’ have been training in separate gyms. They have issued their own statements to the pre-fight press conference. They don’t speak and then the bell goes and they start hitting each other. No communications can the heard except for grunts and the noise of glove on jaw.

It is hard for the majority of people to know where to start in this debate although that doesn’t stop some individuals from pronouncing with great certainty. It is hard because it is so complicated and the climate is a model with so many moving parts. Think of how sophisticated climate modeling computers are and how they still struggle with a forecast that is more than 10 days away.

As I try to make sense of it I remember the flawed information on climate change from the University of East Anglia apparently supporting the notion of climate change, the fact that the weather recordings over the last 20 years or so have shown negligible temperature increases and the snow falls that have taken place in this country together with ships have becomes locked in pack ice in the Arctic recently.Yet I also note that passages through the ice have opened up for the first time for many years, that some glaciers have retreated miles and that some plants are flowering in the middle of winter.

Then there is the question of what to blame if you do accept that the climate is changing and, if so, what should be done about it and by whom. Is it CO2 or is it methane? Is the problem the drying out of peat or emissions from agriculture or from power stations? In a world climatic system how can one country influence another? Is this done by example or treaty? Should countries economic growth be held back when such growth can save lives? What is the ‘whole-life’ carbon cost of new technology that hasn’t been fully tested and while CO2 emissions from burning wood balances its absorption by growing trees, is that the right way of looking at it?

I tend to feel that the greater the professed certainty that people have in this debate the more uncertain I become. Without the benefit of huge computers and scientific laboratories I have to rely on my own experience.

What I have noticed is that we are suffering more extremes, in both directions. This is not a surprise in a country that sits on the edge of the European continent and whose climate is artificially controlled by the operation of the Gulf Stream. The jet stream seems to need oiling to restore its flexibility. If you live in the country you see it at first hand. If you are farming the impact is raw. How much summer feed can you make and how much will you need in the winter? How many pests and diseases will affect your crops or trees and how will you protect them. If you run a tourism business, the weather impacts on visitor numbers not only for day visitors but also holiday makers. These questions all therefore, have £ signs against them. Naively I thought that after the storms of 1987 and 1990 most of the mature trees that were going to come down had come down. These trees were destroyed last month by a lightening strike.

Whatever the experts say we are definitely living in more challenging climatic times and anything that we can do to help the situation we should. Whatever may be happening to the climate naturally we don't want to make it worse. What we need however is clarity, open debate, scientific consensus and this then needs to be translated into clear political consensus around which we can coalesce. Am I too optimistic? In the meantime we need to work out how to mitigate the effects of this variability. Farming and tourism will be in the front line.

 

Ash to Ashes

The news about the spread of ash dieback disease is depressing. I have heard today that a case has been confirmed in Devon. It is almost certain that a 'cure' will not be found before the majority of our trees are lost.
Here in this part of  Devon we have had a long standing relationship with Ash.
It is one of the fastest growing trees so there has been a chance of seeing ash trees grow nearly to maturity within your lifetime. It results in a less dense canopy in summer with its delicate feathery pinnate leaves than some others allowing more undergrowth and variety of flora at ground level. It doesn't seem to attract grey squirrels and thus remains undamaged in young plantations while the squirrels wreck the beech, hornbeam, oak and sycamore. The grey bark and recognisable buds are a feature of so many of our copses and hedgerows as well as woods.
Its wood is prized for some specialised uses such as handles and hockey sticks but of course it is the best of all timber for logs; burning well when still fresh.Our family has a tradition of burning the ashen faggot at Christmas. The bundle of ash sticks are wrapped with three withy (willow) bands and if you guess the first one to burst when they are heated you will have luck in the following year.
Walter Pitts who used to work on the farm was fond of the saying 'oak before ash we shall have splash; ash before oak we shall have soak'. This year the ash trees came out before the oaks and the rain has never stopped.Mind you Walter was never wrong so he was always able to adapt the facts to fit reality!

young Ash tree

My Morris Traveller; companion in my youth; stalwart mode of transport, overnight accommodation and store for my cricket kit and appropriately named 'Ken Barrington' (because it was steady, dependable and accumulated miles slowly as he did his runs) was a car with an ash back.

Yet in truth the ash is a boring tree in some ways too. It's fast growing, invasive nature makes it a competitor for other trees.This is fine when you need pioneer trees on poor soil- less good when it prevents other trees having the space to develop. We have a self seeded ash playing havoc with a wisaria plant that we cannot defeat and loads of self seeded ash in amongst a mixed broadleaf copse. While its winged 'helicopter' seeds help it to spread easily its autumnal display is dull and not a patch on the beeches that are in full display at the moment.

Nevertheless the potential loss of so many trees must be viewed with trepidation. We will recover of course- as we did from Dutch Elm disease and from the great storms of 1987 and 1990. The prospect of more disruption to our native trees- the fantastic architectural backdrop to our landscape- must be a real concern however. The degree to which we appear to be under threat now as a result of climate change and the free movement of products around the world suggests to me that, in addition to improving our defences and our vigilance, we need to be ensuring that our research and development is properly resourced. The general public seem to take trees for granted. Perhaps chalara fraxinea will change that. I hope too that the scientists will be able to learn from those ash trees that have survived in Denmark and help us to develop varieties that are resistant so that once again people will learn that
'ash wood green and ash wood brown
are fit for a Queen with a golden crown'